Nuclear War
A Scenario
Annie Jacobsen
North Sydney, NSW: Penguin Random House, 2024
Paperback 200pp RRP: $36.99
Reviewer: David Rees, August 2024
In her sensational narrative, Annie Jacobson paints a present-day scenario where following a nuclear missile attack on the USA, the US President launches a number of powerful thermo-nuclear missiles against the aggressor. This results in the involvement of the other nuclear nations and the outbreak of a nuclear world war. It concludes not only in the elimination of homo sapiens and their civilizations but the destruction of most other life forms.as well. She argues that because of the huge risk of failure of the nuclear deterrence principle and the likelihood that her frightening scenario could happen, all the nuclear weapons currently stockpiled in the world should be abolished. (A view also held by the Swiss-based Organization ICAN – International Campaign to Abolish nuclear weapons).
Jacobsen is a highly-regarded American journalist and author of many books. She’s good at dramatizing how a nuclear war could occur and the book is really well-researched and well-written with excellent notes and references. It is based on historical (declassified) information obtained from exclusive interviews with politicians, scientists, engineers and military personnel and she demonstrates a firm grasp of military organizations and weaponry. However, because of security requirements there is much fiction in the narrative. Nevertheless, when the story is interwoven with published facts about military arms, scientific data on nuclear bombs and missiles, as well as political organization structures, it achieves a non-fictional status which makes the story very believable and realistic.
The author initially traces the history of the development of nuclear weapons and states that since the end of the Second World War, the Americans have continually planned on how to fight a nuclear war. During the Cold War between the USA and the USSR from 1950 to 1989, the US stockpiled a maximum of 31,255 nuclear weapons. The stockpiling was based on the principle of ‘deterrence’ where the more nuclear weapons a country has, the less likely it was to be attacked. Fortunately, by 2020 the US had reduced its stockpile to less than 6,000 nuclear weapons.
The rest of the book dramatically describes in great minute-by-minute detail what supposedly could happen if a nuclear missile was launched from near Pyongyang in North Korea with its target being the Pentagon in Washington. At first, the missile launch is detected and tracked by the US Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS). Although defensive actions are taken by the US Strategic Command to kill the missile, they fail and another North Korean submarine missile is launched against the west coast of the USA. Both missiles hit their targets.
A timeline of the decision processes adopted by the US commanders and their advisors as well as in the other nations following the attack is described in three key chapters. They include the destructive outcomes from the first 24 minutes after the first missile launch to the next 24 minutes and finally to the last 24 minutes which ends in mutually assured destruction. (MAD)
In reading this book, one is reminded of Kubrick’s 1964 film, Dr Strangelove starring Peter Sellers and George Scott in which fun is made of how a nuclear war could start and finish. At that time, only five countries had nuclear bombs but the threat of a nuclear war was very high. In this book in 2024, the story is more serious because the number of known nuclear countries has increased to nine (Russia, USA, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea) and between them, they have a total stockpile of over 12,500 nuclear warheads!
So, these days, perhaps a new startling book advocating the abolishment of nuclear weapons is a timely reminder of how insane a nuclear war could be.
The RUSI – Vic Library is most grateful to the publishers for making this work available for review.